If AI Can Pass the Exam, the Exam Is the Problem

Recent meta-analyses and research have shown that reasoning-focused models (OpenAI’s o1 and GPT-4) outperform medical students on examinations, clearly and systematically beating the median score and, in most cases, the highest-performing humans’ scores too. The assessments in question were multiple-choice tests, the ultimate symbol of mass assessment.

Last year, the Stanford Human-Centered AI Index tracking data showed something else: when AI is given more time to “think” on examination-style tasks, previous human benchmarks are destroyed. On an International Mathematical Olympiad qualifying exam, an optimized AI model with more “reasoning” outperformed standard AI models (which already outperform humans) by over 60%. In other words, AI will outstrip humans even more on classical assessments if given more time.

Should it worry us that AI can outstrip humans easily on examinations and that enhanced AI will outstrip us even more?

To me, the answer is yes, but not so much because of AI and more because of the type of assessment we have been using to sort students at exit and entry matriculation points for centuries.

In my book Changing Assessment, I explain the main problems with high-stakes, narrowing assessments. Essentially, authentic learning and genuine critical or creative thinking are superseded by timed performance and the ability to cope under a certain, artificial type of pressure. Furthermore, sociologically advantaged students almost always do better, suggesting that examinations are not actually that meritocratic (wealthier students use extra tutors and have access to more test-taking-engineered environments). Finally, the massive scale and standardized nature of these assessments relegate most of the learning outcomes to the lower levels of Bloom’s Taxonomy, favoring knowledge retention and proof of understanding over judgment and analysis. Hardly any analyses of 21st-century competencies see these as particularly valid for the needs of the future.

Now that we know that AI can outperform humans on examinations, what exactly are we examining for? The deeper mechanism behind examinations has always been to classify individuals and groups, which fits the financial model of late capitalism built on scarcity rather than general distribution: the idea is for some to come out on top and others at the bottom. But AI now comes out on top, so where does that lead us in an already somewhat broken model?

The answer is, in my mind, actually much simpler than we might think, and it applies to all assessments, not just examinations.

First, much more emphasis is needed on oracy, discussion, and interview-type assessments. AI cannot be used in these, and they are far more indicative of the type of life-worthy assessment we should be developing in young people, preparing them for job interviews, presentations, and social exchanges.

Second, if we are to test written production, knowing that students can and will use AI (perhaps even inadvertently given its ubiquity), assessments need to take this into account and allow students to use AI openly, to cite that usage openly, and to integrate their own thinking into the work. I asked AI to give examples of what an AI-integrated examination question might look like, insisting that such an assessment push students to think for themselves and not just to rely on AI (which is a slightly ironic scenario), and this is what it came up with:

DisciplineTraditional QuestionAI-Integrated Redesign
History & Political ScienceAnalyze the causes of the French Revolution, focusing on the roles of the three estates.Generate a royalist speech using AI, critique its historical blind spots/biases, and rewrite sections to reflect a more accurate, deeply nuanced historical perspective.
Literature & Creative WritingCompare and contrast the themes of isolation in Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein and Kafka’s The Metamorphosis.Have AI build a movie plot based on these themes, analyze the generic tropes it generates, and write a unique character arc that intentionally subverts those clichés.
Environmental Science & EconomicsWhat are the economic benefits and environmental drawbacks of transitioning a city to 100% solar energy?Generate a standard solar transition master plan using AI, then write an adaptive amendment to salvage the plan after introducing a chaotic, real-world “Black Swan” crisis.

What’s interesting is that each task is much higher up the rungs of critical and creative thinking than traditional assessments, even though (and this is my human critique of AI’s generated solutions), with access to AI, the AI-integrated responses could potentially be done uniquely using AI. On this, at some point, there must be faith in the test-taker’s deontological code, and this should be made clear in the school’s academic honesty policy. Presuming that this is the case, these answers will show greater cognitive application than traditional examination items and also allow students to use AI in formulating their responses, which is something that is happening in the world of work already.

If AI can pass the examination, it’s not AI that should be the focus of our attention, but the way we design the exam. This is a focal point for all educators designing assessments in today’s fast-moving era of VUCA for the long-overdue valorization of higher-order thinking skills.

The Earth Rebounds. So Do Teachers.

Teachers carry enormous weight. Summer is not simply time away from school; it is the season when we regain equilibrium. My yoga teacher regularly invites me to slow down and hold a pose professing, “it is only injury which is likely to happen when you move too fast.”  Any glint or murmuring to slow down grows louder when I consider who I probably have cited more than anyone else in my writing the past years, Paul Salopek. After 13 years walking across the planet, Salopek has taken an estimated 30 million steps along the 42,000 kilometer journey, an experiment he calls, “slow journalism.” A level of patience in near accordance with geologic time. Yet, for most of us, our pace of life seemingly continues to only quicken, resembling anything but slow. Which maybe makes it fitting to consider the importance of “summer” and how a fundamental geological term called isostasy might be relatable.

Isostasy: Finding Equilibrium

Isostasy is the Earth’s way of maintaining balance. Imagine the Earth’s crust floating on a softer layer beneath it, much like a wooden raft floats on water. When extra weight is added, such as a massive glacier or thick layers of sediment, the crust slowly sinks. When that weight is removed through melting ice or erosion, the land gradually rises again in a process called isostatic rebound. The Earth does not rebound instantly. Neither do people. Recovery requires time, space, and patience.

Students and teachers need time to recover after the weight of a demanding school year. Maybe not at quite the same scale. Summer is often described as time off, but that phrase misses the point. For educators, summer is not an escape from work. It is part of our work. A season of recovery, reflection and renewal. Energies hopefully rise, while curiosities and creativity stir. The pause may even precipitate the gaining of new perspectives.

Recovery begins as soon as a weight is lifted. Whether it be rebound from rapidly melting glaciers, or the restorative choices students, teachers, and administrators might choose in the summer. For me, renewal rarely comes from simply resting. It comes from pursuing experiences that reconnect me with curiosity, challenge, and purpose. Also, the discovery of new places, internally and externally from the self. 

An Unexpected Invitation

On first appearance I would have guessed it was the choice to lead a teenage group on a ski trip to Patagonia, would provide the most isostasy. 

Co-leading summer trips are usually the best professional development opportunity. Yet, it was an email invitation that brought a degree of renewal far beyond what I might have imagined. 

The offer was to lead an online class for girls in Afghanistan. The subject of the e-mail, “Volunteer with Awesome Afghan Scholars” captured my attention. I opened the message and read “I have become a board member for the Alekain Foundation, a nonprofit that provides US-accredited high school education opportunities for girls and young women in Afghanistan. This summer, we’re looking for volunteers to implement project-based or skills-based online “camp” offerings.” The wheels of my creativity quickly began to turn.

When Purpose Becomes Curriculum

What might I offer that would be meaningful?

I stewed over this for a short while.

With absolute autonomy, I started with purpose and then began to develop content. Then determine duration and what would be asynchronous. Further, what value could be added synchronously. In the end, I titled the course, “Finding Your Why: Stories, Walking, and the Power to Shape Your Future.” The course overview: Why am I here, and how can I make a difference? Through stories, observation, reflection, and conversation, students will discover how purpose grows through curiosity, relationships, and small acts of courage. Drawing inspiration from Simon Sinek’s idea of finding your “Why,” the global walking journey of Paul Salopek, the community-building stories in Seedfolks, and anthropology’s focus on understanding people and cultures, you will learn to see your communities (and hopefully yourself) in new ways. No classroom is required. The world becomes the classroom!

Twenty girls, young women, signed up. An absolutely invitational approach was taken. No grades and deadlines kept loose. Yet sort of a sprint as it was a two-week course. Five years ago the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan and girls were banned from secondary school. In September 2024 the Taliban’s Higher Education Ministry confirmed that the Taliban’s supreme leader and his ministers vow to “never open girls’ schools.” Rivers can be dammed, but water will always find another path. Determined to learn, but also lead a different course forward, the girls do more than show up. So respectful on Zooms, emoticon hands would rise up in numbers or students would politely interject, “Sir, can I please speak?” I even received a message, “Thank you dear teacher.” Courtesy, grace, and genuine gratitude in abundance. 

Discovering Purpose and Possibility

In one of the opening activities, an assignment asked students to consider what they were good at, what they enjoy, and what the world needs. I similarly begin this with my in-person students and on more than a handful of occasions have borne witness to students struggling to respond. And “playing video games” or “Tik Tok scrolling” are not uncommon listings in the “What I am good at” segment. This go around, any expectation I could have had would be superseded. And this was only the beginning.

Example of student response to a version of Ikigai

With each assignment, learning resembled what I believe. Exploration, creativity, and depth. My heart welled up repeatedly hearing messages like this one: “I want to use education to open doors for people who have been denied them, just as I once searched for those opportunities myself. My purpose is not only to achieve my own dreams but to help others believe that their future can be different.” Google Doc comments and questions always followed up and the course took on a conversational feel. 

The Light That Continues to Shine

“Sir, before 2002 in Afghanistan many people didn’t have electricity and used an alekain (lamp). This was a basic tool for brightening their nights.  I was born in 2008 so I don’t know much about life before me , but I don’t think it was so nice.” Another student stayed at the end of one of our Zoom meetings to personally share how she often ponders, “I think if everything didn’t happen with the Taliban, I would just be a normal high school student.” Her voice carried a quiet lift of optimism. Grateful for working as a teacher, in marketing and now sales. All the while taking every opportunity to advance her studies as well. 

I am so glad I responded to the request, “Volunteer with Awesome Afghan Scholars.” 

My perspectives broadened. 

I am left inspired in so many ways. 

The experience with the Alekain Foundation and these indefatigable Afghan girls became my own isostatic rebound. Through them, I found myself restored to balance, renewed in purpose, and ready for another year in the classroom.

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GLOBAL BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS

Fake news, war, food production… they are all current topics in the adult world. These brand new books give a child information on these current issues.

The Quiet Hunt, written by Jean E. Pendziwol and illustrated by Risa Hugo is an absolutely lovely picture book that reminds us where food comes from. Before supermarkets and shops, our ancestors would hunt. They gathered berries and fruits and knew just what was safe to eat and what was not.

Through sharing knowledge, we still can hunt and gather today as we go into the woods and search the streams. A great poetic story to share before going on a nature walk.

ISBN 978-1-77306-767-4, Groundwood Books

Ribbon Rescue is a brand new picture book by Robert Munsch, illustrated by Shaikara David. Jillian is a Mohawk girl and has a beautiful new ribbon dress, made by her grandmother. But when Jillian leaves home, people rush by en route to a wedding, looking for help . She helps them all and her ribbons come to the rescue: as a shoe lace, as hair ribbons, even to tie up a gift. But when Gillian finally makes it to the church, her dress is a mess. How will she solve her problem? The story wraps up, in typical Musch style, with a satisfying ending.

ISBN 978-1-0397-1384-0, Scholastic Canada

The Sea We Call Home, written by Dominique Demers and illustrated by Gabrielle Grimard, is a whimsical tale of two sweet characters named Little Gnouf and Mirabelle. They have learned about sea creatures from The Big Book of the Sea. Enchanted, they set off in search of the sea. They are amazed by the seaside and soon discover a baby sperm whale, stranded on the beach. With the help of sand crabs and seagulls they set it free and reunite it with its mother. This picture book has a fairytale feel while also giving nonfiction facts about whales. It is beautifully designed with large print.

ISBN 978-1-77278-367-4, Pajama Press

Fake Gnus by Leslie Helakoski is a fun, humorous romp through real and fake facts. Scoop Jackson is a reporter and has to figure out if the information he hears is real or fake. He soon discovers that the pen for the gnus at the zoo is empty. Where are the gnus? Using facts, Scoop is able to separate facts from fiction to determine if the rumours or true or not. Are the gnus climbing the Empire State Building? No! Gnus can run, reaching speeds of up to fifty miles an hour but they cannot climb.  At the end of the hilarious story, readers find statements and need to determine if these are real or fake. Another page helps young readers to question, to look for information and not take anything for granted. A great introduction for young students to doing research and using your brain to distinguish between real information, AI and fake news.

ISBN 978-1-77946-050-9, Groundwood Books

Eleven Out of Ten by Stacey Matson is a wonderful novel for elementary readers to sink their teeth in. Albie and Lake are not just cousins and neighbors, they are also best friends. But when Lake suffers a terrible accident, the two are separate for this first time. 

Albie’s parents are so concerned about Lake and her family that they don’t realize the toll this takes on Albie. Albie struggles with the fact that she is having fun and making new friends while her best friend is in a coma. No matter how often she tells her parents that she wants to see her, she is told that no one is allowed in the ICU and that she can’t go to the hospital. Instead, she has to go to day camp and can’t share any of her experiences with her friend. 

The story is well written and realistic with a satisfying ending. A great novel for young readers to sink their teeth into!

ISBN 978-1-0397-0879-2, Scholastic

Planting Sunshine by Andrée Poulin, illustrated by Enzo, is an unusual, short novel. Written as free verse poetry, with each page being a poem, this is the story of a child puzzled by war. War enters his home on TV. Theo wonders why there is war, why people kill each other, and his parent has no answers. 

His neighbor has lived through a war. She makes the best perogies and suggests that Theo plants sunflowers. But at school Theo’s friends argue and want to play war. War gives Theo nightmares until his dad realizes that Theo needs to talk about his fears. A girl paints white doves in a quiet protest to war. Once Theo can talk about it and finds small ways to protest as well, he feels much better. He knows that he can’t change the world, but doing what you can to prevent war does help.

This is a wonderful book to help students discuss war, to talk about their own fears, to look for answers together and even to find small ways to protest war anywhere.

ISBN 978-1-77946-138-4, Groundwood Books

Margriet Ruurs writes books for children in Canada and visits International Schools around the world. Her next book is called More Than Books, Why The World Needs Libraries (Orca Books).

www.margrietruurs.com

The Flower Outside The Bouquet

The blues: oil on canvas by Shwetangna Chakrabarty

In today’s world full of conflict and war, it seems an estimated of 13 million children to be out of school in conflict-affected areas, this is as per UNESCO’s Institute for Statistics and the Global Education Monitoring Report. Additionally, conflict, the climate emergency, and the hunger crisis have pushed education systems to the brink. Combined, this means that 224 million school-aged children now have their education severely disrupted by crises. When these young learners, or displaced children, or refugees, or migrants are accommodated back in the a classroom, they are usually labeled for the convenience of the school, state or educational systems. Like the flower in my painting, the same but not the same. I completed the painting sometime back thinking of the flower that is forgotten or is not part of the bouquet and hence named it ‘The Blues’.

We all experience this blue feeling sometime or the other, but what happens if it becomes a constant state of mind because of the education systems or policies. Education often speaks the language of global mindedness. We celebrate mobility, intercultural understanding, multilingualism and learning across borders. We encourage young people to see themselves as part of a shared humanity. And yet, there is a painful contradiction at the heart of this aspiration. How do we include children who have had to cross borders not as a choice?

For some learners, crossing borders is presented as an educational opportunity: a semester abroad, a university pathway, an international qualification, a passport to global citizenship. For others, crossing borders is an act of survival. It may mean fleeing conflict, war, violence, persecution, climate disruption or political instability. For these learners, education is not simply interrupted. It usually becomes inaccessible altogether.

I read a recent UNESCO reporting that reminded me of the scale of this inequity. Refugee participation in higher education has increased, but remains profoundly below global participation rates. Behind this gap are not only questions of affordability or language proficiency, but also missing documents, unrecognised qualifications, disrupted schooling, restrictive admissions systems, limited information, systemic bureaucracy, and institutional processes that were never designed for displaced learners.

This should give all of us in international education pause. Think about the systems we create, is access being masked as equity? Realizing the harsh reality of our diverse classrooms where there are more and more displaced or refugee or migrant children.

Equity cannot be reduced to opening a door and hoping someone can walk through it. Equity asks whether the building itself was designed with everyone in mind. The solution is in the design.

Access is only the beginning

When we discuss inclusion, we often begin with access: who is admitted, who receives a scholarship, who is offered a seat in a classroom. These questions matter deeply. But access alone does not guarantee belonging, participation or success.

A learner who has escaped conflict or war or has been displaced from their country of origin may enter an institution to be included in education and still feel invisible. Their previous learning may be treated with suspicion because it does not fit familiar records or systems. Their linguistic abilities may be viewed as a deficit rather than an intellectual resource. Their experiences may be invited into the classroom only when the topic is war, displacement or trauma.

This is not representation. It is conditional acceptance. Ironically the word conditional acceptance is also a norm in higher education.

True representation means that refugee and displaced learners are not positioned merely as recipients of support, stories of resilience, or subjects for others to study. They must be recognized as thinkers, contributors, knowledge holders and co-creators of learning spaces. Most importantly they are here as we left them nowhere to be.

International education has an important responsibility here. If our purpose is truly to develop learners who can engage thoughtfully with complexity, then we cannot build programmes that treat some forms of knowledge as universal and others as peripheral, traditional or indigenous, minimizing their significance. Categories should exist to treat them at par not as lesser than.

Representation in pedagogy, who is expected to speak, learn and belong?

Pedagogy is rarely neutral. Every classroom makes assumptions about participation, confidence, language, prior knowledge and what counts as success.

In many multicultural classrooms, we reward the learner who speaks quickly, debates confidently, makes eye contact, asks questions publicly and articulates ideas in the dominant language of instruction, mostly English. These may be valuable skills, but they are not the only indicators of intellectual engagement. How does the pedagogy ensure intellectual indicators that are diverse and not common.

A learner who has experienced displacement may need time before contributing in a large group. They may express understanding through writing, visual representation, collaboration, observation, careful reflection or even silence. They may carry linguistic and cultural knowledge that expands the discussion but does not emerge through conventional participation structures. How do we create learning spaces for psychological safety of these learners?

An equitable pedagogy creates multiple pathways for learning and expression. This can only happen if we build systems that recognize and acknowledge the world around them and the changing nomenclature of our classrooms.

This might mean offering varied ways to demonstrate understanding, building in structured reflection before discussion, valuing multilingual thinking, using collaborative rather than exclusively competitive learning structures, and ensuring that classroom dialogue does not demand personal disclosure as the price of participation. It also means being careful not to make refugee or displaced learners representatives of an entire country, conflict or community. No student should have to relive their displacement in order to make a lesson feel authentic for others. They should not be used as case studies.

The question for educators is not, “How can we include displaced or conflict impacted student stories in our curriculum?” It is, “How can our learning environments recognize the full humanity, expertise and agency of displaced or conflict impacted learners?” I avoid using the term ‘refugee’ as I feel it misinterprets the lived experiences of the learner.

Representation in epistemology, whose knowledge counts?

International education must also confront a deeper question: whose knowledge counts?

When knowledge is presented as if it has only one centre, learners from the margins are expected to enter someone else’s intellectual world rather than seeing themselves as participants in creating it. A more equitable curriculum does not simply add diverse names to a reading list. It asks broader questions: Whose voices are missing from this unit?Which histories have been treated as central, and which have been treated as supplementary? What knowledge has been carried through memory, language, community practice or lived experience but excluded because it does not fit conventional pedagogy?

For conflict impacted or displaced learners, this matters profoundly. Displacement does not erase knowledge. A student may arrive without reports or transcripts but still bring deep knowledge of languages, local economies, cultural systems, environmental realities, migration, political histories and resilience. If our education system cannot recognize such knowledge, it is not just failing individual learners. It is limiting itself.

Representation in implementation, where do values become real?

Equity is often strongest in vision statements and weakest in implementation. We may speak beautifully about inclusion while maintaining admissions procedures that assume every learner has uninterrupted schooling, official transcripts, stable internet access, financial guarantees, standardized test scores and familiarity with complex bureaucratic systems.

This is where international education policies must move from aspiration to action. Where do we see the values in action?

Institutions can begin by reviewing whether their admissions, assessment and support systems and policies unintentionally exclude displaced learners. Flexible recognition of prior learning, competency-based assessments, provisional admissions, alternative evidence of qualifications and clearer guidance can make a difference. But the work does not end there.

Students also need practical support and they need staff who understand that trauma-informed practice is not about lowering expectations. It is about creating conditions in which high expectations are possible. These learners need to see themselves in the curriculum, in institutional leadership, in student voice structures and in the decisions made about their learning.

Most importantly, they need to be asked what would make education more accessible and meaningful for them. Not consulted after decisions have already been made. Not invited to share a story for a brochure. Not admitted to raise the school diversity profile. Asked as partners in design.

Internationalism as responsibility

This is the urgent moment for international education to reconsider what internationalism really means. It cannot only mean the ability of some learners to travel easily between countries, institutions and opportunities. It must also mean responsibility towards those for whom borders have become barriers. And responsibility of who created these conditions for displacing young learners.

The promise of international education is that every learner will be recognized for who they are within the journey they are already navigating, not for how they fit in their new environment.This is a question of rights, dignity and intellectual justice.

And for all of us working in international education, it is a reminder that representation must be visible not only in the faces in our classrooms, but in the knowledge we teach, the pedagogies we use and the systems we choose to build. Equity has to begin with access, but it only becomes real when learners are able to arrive, belong, contribute and shape education for their present and future, together.

Blue Skies Leadership Podcast – Episode #24

Did you know that over 80% of international school headships end prematurely? Leadership instability isn’t rare, it’s a systemic epidemic across our sector.

Episode 24 of the Blue Skies Leadership Podcast is officially LIVE!
In this episode, hosts Dan Mendes and I sit down with Kevin Baker, Director of the American International School of Guangzhou , to discuss his groundbreaking research-backed white paper on leadership transitions.

Kevin challenges the classic myth of the “90-day transition” and argues that a successful transition is actually a two-year process that starts the moment the contract is signed. This conversation is an absolute masterclass for any international school head, board member, or aspiring leader committed to school stability.

Listen to Episode 24 with Kevin Baker right here: https://lnkd.in/emu489a5

#BlueSkiesLeadership#InternationalSchools#SchoolLeadership#LeadershipTransitions#EdLeaders#PodcastLaunch

The Sky Is Falling. Again. But What If It Is? (1 of 6)

(Part 1 here) (Part 2 here) (Part 3 here) (Part 4 here) (Part 5 here) (Part 6 here)

I remember the public information films of the 1970s and 80s, when nuclear annihilation was treated as a practical household problem. We were told Stay indoors. Close your curtains. Place yourself under a table. The assumption that after a thermonuclear exchange, you’d want to get the curtains right was presented without irony.  We lived with that terrifying background hum for decades. Thankfully the worst-case scenario didn’t materialise; not because it couldn’t, but because human beings made good choices that prevented it.

That memory came back to me this month, reading two articles that have been doing the rounds, suggesting that AI is an almost existential threat. In the first, AI entrepreneur Matt Shumer describes watching his own job disappear – not to a competitor, but to the very AI tools he helped build. The second, by the financial research group Citrini, is a fictional retrospective written from June 2028, in which AI-driven job displacement triggers a financial crisis that makes 2008 look like a rehearsal. 

Both pieces are long, and in their own way, terrifying (if you haven’t already read them, they’re worth your time). But while they deserve to be taken seriously, so does our own track record of panic, because the pattern is familiar: A new technology arrives; early adopters say this changes everything and people who don’t understand it say that’s what they always say. So far, reality has always landed somewhere in between, but not before a period of genuine fear.

Why this time feels different

What I have written so far may sound reassuring – we’ve seen this before and it’s been OK. But reassurance and complacency are easily confused, and I’m reminded of Bertrand Russell’s fable of the chicken who, having been fed every day of its life, concludes that it will be fed tomorrow too. And it is, until the day the farmer wrings its neck. Russell’s point was that the chicken’s confidence in the future was based on perfectly good evidence – until the day it wasn’t. The alternative to being Russell’s chicken is not, however, to be the ostrich – head buried firmly in the sand, convinced that if you don’t look at it, it isn’t happening. I’ve spent enough years in education to know that this is a popular strategy among teenagers and Heads of College alike. It may not end well.

One reason this feels different is that there is something about AI that cuts in a different way to other panics. Freud famously argued that humanity has suffered three great wounds to its self-image: Copernicus showed we’re not at the centre of the universe; Darwin showed we are animals; and Freud himself (modestly) showed that the animal is sick. Each was met with fierce resistance, because each threatened something fundamental about what it means to be human. AI may be the fourth wound. If a machine can write, reason, create, judge, and even show something that looks remarkably like taste, then it feels like there may be nothing left for us.

The evidence backs the feeling. Data from research organisation METR shows AI capability has been doubling roughly every seven months, and suggests it may be accelerating even further. AI systems are now contributing to their own development, and the people building them talk seriously about a point at which AI improvement becomes self-sustaining and potentially beyond human control. Whether this materialises or plateaus may be the most important empirical question of our time. Nobody knows the answer. But the possibility that the trajectory holds is what makes this different from previous moral panics. Previous threats – even the nuclear one – were about the destructive application of human intelligence and held out the possibility that applied more carefully, our own intelligence might solve them. This one is about whether human intelligence itself remains the scarce and special thing we’ve always assumed it to be.

And yet. I gave a talk recently in which I shared some data that I think matters here, drawing on the wonderful Fix the News website

  • Every single country in the world today has a lower child mortality rate than it had in 1950.
  • In the early 19th century, 85% of the world lived in extreme poverty; today it’s 9%.
  • Global life expectancy has gone from 30 to 72 in two centuries.
  • Literacy has risen from 12% to 83%.
  • The number of people in extreme poverty has fallen by an average of 118,000 every day for 25 years.
  • We may be on the brink of a genuine energy transition – solar is now 41% cheaper than fossil fuels on average, and China alone added more solar capacity in the first half of 2025 than the United States has in its entire history.

These are six facts from a million other equally good ones. Now, you could argue this is Russell’s chicken again. Perhaps. But a track record is still evidence, and ignoring it is to be an ostrich in a different way. These things still happened not because the future was guaranteed, or that arriving here was in any way inevitable, but because enough people made good enough choices, often enough, over a long enough period of time for us to arrive here (despite all our flaws and failures) at a genuinely better point than at any point in human history. 

The Citrini problem

The predictions of the Citrini piece are dramatic, but it’s the structural argument that matters most. The scenario describes a negative feedback loop with no natural brake: AI gets better, companies cut staff, displaced workers spend less, companies invest more in AI to protect margins, AI gets better. Each individual decision may be rational, but this spiral has no floor and the outcome is catastrophic. And this time, it’s intellectually and morally dishonest to wave this away with the standard ‘Technology destroys jobs but creates even more’ argument that has been true for two centuries. However painful it was (and it has proven to be very painful) previously displaced workers could retrain for the new roles that technology created and so the net effect was more and better jobs. But if AI is a general substitute for cognitive work, then the new roles will also be done by machines and the usual escape hatch may not exist.

Now, the Citrini piece is explicitly a fiction, not a prediction, and it privileges clean narratives over messy reality. Real economies are more resilient, more adaptive, and more surprising than any model. The 2008 financial crisis, for all its devastation, did not produce the collapse that some predicted; COVID-19 was met with a vaccine developed in under a year. Humans are good at muddling through.

But muddling through is not a strategy; it’s a description of what we do when we don’t know what to do, and there is no guarantee it will always work. Nobody will muddle through an asteroid strike. So is AI disruption more like a storm we can weather or an asteroid we need to deflect? The honest answer is that no-one knows. What we do know is that the Shumer piece – with its personal, visceral, this-happened-to-me-on-Monday quality – should unsettle anyone who thinks this is still abstract. The asteroid may or may not be coming, but something is getting brighter in the sky.

So what do we do? 

I’m not going to pretend I have a structural answer to the Citrini problem. If the retraining escape hatch is genuinely closed and there is widespread displacement then we need economic and institutional responses that don’t yet exist – and building them is work for economists, policymakers, and political leaders. What I can speak to is the human piece that any structural solution requires.

The quality we will all require. Nerve. Which is not confidence or optimism, but something harder and more demanding: the agency and determination to act when the outcome is genuinely unknown, because action is precisely what makes good outcomes possible. Nerve in this sense is not the belief that things will work out; it is the discipline to act well regardless of whether they do.

The Stoics understood this. Their position is not passive acceptance, despite the caricature – it is the most disciplined form of agency there is: radical clarity about what you cannot control, followed by total commitment to what you can. Marcus Aurelius wrote his Meditations while commanding an army and managing an empire in the middle of a plague. He knew a thing or two about holding his nerve, and he did the work not because he knew how things would work out, or even that they would work out – but because the work was his to do regardless. We can’t control what OpenAI or Anthropic build; we can’t reshape the global economy from the outside, but we can make determined choices about how we raise the next generation, and how we think about what it means to live a good life in uncertain times. That is not a small thing; it may even be the whole thing.

And there is evidence that nerve works. Those six facts I cited earlier – infant mortality falling in every country, extreme poverty collapsing, life expectancy doubling, literacy rising from 12% to 83%, 118,000 people lifted out of poverty every single day – none of them were inevitable or even obvious beforehand. They happened because enough people, over a long enough period, made good enough choices often enough for the trajectory to hold. That is the track record. Not of blind hope, but of human beings repeatedly holding their nerve under pressure, across centuries.

The nuclear threat is the case in point, because the parallels are closer than they might seem. That threat didn’t vanish because it was imaginary. On the contrary, it was sufficiently serious that we acted, and the problem became the raw material for the solution. Slowly, unglamorously, it was contained over the decades by diplomats who sat in rooms with people they didn’t trust, by scientists who argued for restraint when their governments wanted escalation, by activists who marched when marching seemed futile, by politicians who chose negotiation over posture. None of them knew it would work; many probably doubted that it would. They did it anyway, not because they were optimists but because they understood that the alternative to acting was not safety but surrender. That is what nerve looks like in practice.

The question with AI is whether we can summon the same collective will, and whether our institutions are capable of moving fast enough. That is genuinely uncertain, but the capacity is there and this is where the work of parents and educators must be. Any crisis must ultimately be navigated by people who think clearly, act collectively, and hold their nerve. Developing those people is, therefore, an essential part of the broader solution to the problem. Every treaty that contained the nuclear threat was negotiated by someone whose parents and teachers helped form their judgment. Every march was joined by someone who had learned that showing up matters even when the odds are long.

This doesn’t mean controlling the next generation or telling them what to think, still less pretending that we have the answers. It means having the kinds of conversations that develop curiosity, judgment, resilience, intellectual humility, and the disposition to contribute to something larger. Not because these qualities are nice to have, but because they are the operational requirements for navigating what’s coming. Education at its best allows younger generations to draw on the hard-won wisdom of older ones, rather than assuming they need to start from scratch – or worse, move fast and break things without understanding them first. We can’t inoculate our children against an uncertain future – but we can develop in them the capacity to meet it. 

In his marvellous Culture novels, Iain M. Banks imagined a post-scarcity civilization where benevolent AI had long ago surpassed human intelligence, solved the resource problem, and liberated people to pursue meaning, art, adventure, and connection. Citrini also imagines a world where AI makes humans economically redundant, but the result is catastrophe. Same starting point, opposite outcomes. So the sky may be falling – it’s fallen before, and we’re still here. But which version of ‘still here’ we get depends on the choices we make, and on us having the nerve to make them.

References

  • Images created with AI (OpenArt)
  • Aurelius, M. (c. 171-175 CE). Meditations. (M. Hammond, Trans., 2006). Penguin Classics.
  • Banks, I. M. (1987-2012). The Culture series. Orbit/Macmillan
  • Citrini Research & Shah, A. (2026, February 22). The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis: A thought exercise in financial history, from the future. Citrini Research. https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
  • Freud, S. (1917). A difficulty in the path of psycho-analysis. In The Standard Edition of the Complete Psychological Works of Sigmund Freud (Vol. XVII, pp. 135-144). Hogarth Press.
  • Hervey, A. (n.d.). Fix the News. https://fixthenews.com
  • METR. (2026). Time Horizon 1.1. https://metr.org/blog/2026-1-29-time-horizon-1-1/
  • Russell, B. (1912). The Problems of Philosophy. Williams and Norgate. Chapter VI: On Induction.
  • Shumer, M. (2026, February 9). Something big is happening. shumer.dev. https://shumer.dev/something-big-is-happening

GLOBAL BOOK RECOMMENDATIONS

Diversity, how others live, choices you may have to make… These are the themes that tie these books together. From a picturebook about heritage to a teen novel about different viewpoints. Happy reading and sharing with students!

Grandma, Cho Cho and Me, written by Morgan Christie, illustrated by Paulica Santos is a lovely picturebook that celebrates diversity. As a young girl and her grandma prepare a big Jamaican breakfast, she learns about her heritage. As the tradition is handed down from generation to generation, the foods, the dishes and the stories help her to form an image of ancestors and her own place in the world.

ISBN 978-1-77306-751-3, Groundwood Books

A Life Like Mine is a brilliant visual celebration of human life on our planet. The contents is organized in four main categories: Survival, Development, Protection and Participation. Within these areas, chapters cover essentials all children need, like water and food, war and peace, education and housing. Kids can find out what it is like to grow up on an Australian ranch or in a village in Rwanda. How do people in other countries cook and eat? What kind of religions are there? 

Breathtaking photos complement text boxes and personal narratives of children around the world. This handbook to life on earth is a valuable tool for any classroom.

The book was produced in association with UNICEF. This book was first published by DK Publishers in 2002 but should still be readily available. 

ISBN 0-7894-8859-0

Fly Away Home by Betty Quan, with art by Akin Duzakin is a beautiful multi-leveled picturebook that can be used by readers of all ages. The lyrical text focuses on birds – different birds on each page. While goldfinches leave home, while hummingbirds buzz with news, and magpies cloud the sun the art shows a second story. People walk, in long lines, in small groups. They follow the same paths as the birds, leaving home in search of a new place to live. And where birds allow other species to live amongst them, the people also find homes. We follow a girl and her mother throughout the story. And as they find a new home, so do the birds make new nests. A lovely, subtle story to share with students who have come from many different backgrounds.

ISBN 978-1-77306-962-3, Gorundwood Books

A Time to Choose by Martha Attema is a novel based on an angle of World War II which is not often discussed. We are all familiar with what went on in a room in a house in Amsterdam during German occupation, where people lived in hiding. A Time To Choose is the story of 16 year old Johannes who is Dutch. His movements and life, too, are restricted by the enemy’s rules and regulations. Even though his family lives on a farm, there is not enough food and soldiers can take anything they need for warfare purposes. Johannes’ father is a collaborator with the enemy. How does this effect Johannes and the rest of his family? During the final year of the war, Johannes is old enough to make his own decisions and listen to his own conscience. As he joins the underground resistance, he struggles with what it is right and with his father’s decisions. Johannes faces dangerous situations as he decides to help those who need it. An eye opener for readers of all ages and a story applicable to wars in the world today.

ISBN 1-55143-045-2, Orca Books

Julia and Romano by Eric Walters is a great, contemporary novel for teens. The seed for this book was planted when the author was asked, by a highschool student in a small town on Vancouver Island, what he would write about their town. Walters, not one to shy away from a challenge and always full of ideas for stories, immediately came up with a realistic plot that would appeal to students in this BC town. 

Julia has to move with her mom, away from all of her friends, from Toronto to Campbell River in BC. Cody has lived there all of life. Julia becomes good friends with Cody and it isn’t until their friendship blossoms into something more, that the two discover that their parents represent very opposing sites of a picture: a mom who is a lawyer fighting for the environment and a father who owns the local logging company.

This realistic page turner is a true Romeo and Juliet saga. It not only paints a good picture of life in a close knit town, it is also a good story for readers to curl up with.

ISBN 978-1-77086-823-6, BCD Young Readers

Margriet Ruurs is a writer of many awardwinning books for children. She conducts author presentations to International Schools worldwide.

www.margrietruurs.com

Blue Skies Leadership Podcast – Episode #23

Are your school’s hiring policies unintentionally filtering out your next rising star?

When international schools hunt for new educators or leaders, it is incredibly easy to fall into a hyper-myopic trap. We obsess over specific resumes, exact curricular checkmarks, or even preferred accents.

But in Episode 23 of the Blue Skies Leadership Podcast, Dr. Tim Stuart (Director of Leadership Recruitment at Search Associates) challenges us to look for the “X Factor.”

What is the X Factor? It’s the hidden potential, the upward trajectory, and—most importantly—the deeply human capacity to look at a student or a colleague and say, “I believe in you.”

Tim notes a powerful truth: “I can teach you how to teach IB, PYP, or AP… but I can’t teach you how to be a really good human being who loves collaborating and loves kids. Hire for that.”

Daniel Mendes and I sit down with Tim to dissect how we can build more equitable, diverse, and human-centered pathways for leadership in global education.
Listen to E23 – “The X Factor” now

Colonizer, Colonized, and the Question of What Comes Next?

Blooming Flourishing Hibiscus,-water colour by Shwetangna Chakrabarty

At a recent conference on flourishing in the Anthropocene, I found myself sitting with two feelings that are not always easy to hold together: intellectual curiosity as well as deep discomfort.

The conference brought together urgent and necessary questions. What does it mean to flourish in an age where human activity has become a geological force? How might education respond to ecological collapse, climate grief, social fragmentation, and the exhaustion of systems built on extraction? Social, economic, educational, or political systems that survive by taking more than they give back. How do we reimagine education beyond competition, hyper-individualism, marketisation, and the narrow metrics of success that have shaped modern schooling?

These are important questions. They are questions educators cannot afford to avoid.

And yet, as I listened, another question began to form within me: who is being invited to answer them?

Much of the discussion returned, understandably, to colonization. Coloniality was named as a legacy we continue to carry: a way of thinking that separates humans from nature, privileges Western knowledge systems, reduces complexity by categorizing, and positions some people as knowers while others become objects of study. There were calls to disrupt colonial frameworks, to center marginalized voices, to rethink flourishing through relationality, land, community, ecology, and justice.

But as a person shaped by colonized histories, I felt a familiar unease. Too often, the colonized appear in such conversations as evidence, as metaphor, as moral urgency, or as intellectual raw material. Their histories are invoked to critique dominant systems. Their suffering becomes the foundation for reform. Their knowledge is referenced as a solution. But are they present as equal architects of the future being imagined? Isn’t that the urgent need?

This is where my discomfort sat. Is it enough to speak about colonial harm if the people most marked by that harm are not invited or consulted into the centre of the conversation? Is it possible that even well-intentioned reform can reproduce the same hierarchy it claims to resist? Could the message unintentionally become: we colonized you, and now we will teach you how to heal from colonialism?

This question is painful, but necessary. At a systemic level who should lead on this solution-the colonizer or the colonized? Does this feel I am segregating communities into categories, if it does, then I have succeeded in giving you an idea of how I feel sitting through these conversations.

Education has always been deeply implicated in colonial projects. It has classified, ranked, corrected, civilized, assimilated, and erased. It has taught some children to inherit the world and others to doubt their place in it. It has privileged certain languages, literatures, histories, epistemologies, and ways of reasoning, while treating others as local, informal, indigenous, spiritual, emotional, or anecdotal.

So when education now turns toward decolonization, sustainability, relational wellbeing, and the Anthropocene, it must do more than change its vocabulary. It must examine the architecture of participation itself.

Who designs the conversation themes?
Who frames the questions? Who is answering these questions? Who leads and who is led?
Who is cited as theory?
Who is invited as testimony?
Who is present in the room, and who appears only in the slides?

The Anthropocene is often described as “the age of man,” a term that captures the unprecedented impact of human activity on the Earth’s systems. But even this framing demands scrutiny. Which humans? Whose activities? Whose industrial revolutions, empires, economies, and appetites? To speak of “humanity” as a single factor risks erasing histories of responsibility. The farmer in India displaced by extractive economies, the Indigenous community in Africa defending land from business giants, the child/ren dying in war zones, and the corporation profiting from extraction and war are not equally responsible for the planetary crisis. Even allegiance makes a difference. Hence I sit in my confusion in these conversations.

At the same time, I wonder whether the Anthropocene should limit us only to the binary of oppressor and oppressed. That binary is necessary for naming injustice, but I strongly think it is not enough for imagining flourishing. If we remain only within the context of harm, colonized vs colonizer, oppressed vs oppressors, we may diagnose the system without learning how to truly live as equals.

I am grateful for the conference that reminded me that flourishing cannot be understood as individual achievement alone. It is relational. It is ecological. It is cultural. It is spiritual. It is linguistic. It is intergenerational. A flourishing student is not merely one who performs well academically, but one who is rooted, connected, purposeful, emotionally alive, critically conscious, and able to imagine futures beyond inherited limits.

But for education to nurture this kind of flourishing, it must resist the temptation to turn relationality into another fashionable framework. Land-based pedagogy, Indigenous knowledge, community epistemologies, photovoice, storytelling, and decolonial thought cannot become decorative additions to an unchanged system. They cannot be extracted from communities, translated into Western academic language, and then re-presented as innovation. That would not be decolonization. It would be epistemic recycling.

The deeper work is not simply to include marginalized knowledge in existing systems, but to ask whether the system itself is capable of being changed by that knowledge. This is particularly important for international education. Our schools often speak the language of global citizenship, intercultural understanding, sustainability, and human flourishing. Yet we must ask whether our curricula genuinely disturbs inherited hierarchies of knowledge, or whether they merely add diversity to a fundamentally Western frame. Do students learn that knowledge lives in many languages, landscapes, bodies, histories, and relationships? Or do they learn that some knowledge is universal while other knowledge is “context”?

Perhaps the real learning from the Anthropocene is not only that humans have damaged the Earth. It is that certain ways of living on this planet have been made dominant at great cost. For me, the most powerful question emerging from the conference was not simply, how do we educate for flourishing in the Anthropocene? It was: who gets to define flourishing, and for whom?

If the answer is still shaped primarily by those historically positioned as the definers of knowledge, then we have not gone far enough. To speak ethically about colonized histories, educators and institutions, the colonized cannot remain the subject of reform. They must be co-creators, critics, theorists, leaders, and designers of the educational futures being imagined.

My understanding through some insightful discussions with colleagues leads me to think that the Anthropocene asks us to confront planetary crisis; decoloniality asks us to confront historical and epistemic injustice; humanistic education asks us to hold onto hope, dignity, and possibility.

The work ahead is not to let the language of decolonization become another performance of institutional virtue, another woke word. It is to create educational spaces where those most affected by colonial histories are not merely remembered, referenced, or researched, but genuinely heard, trusted, and followed. Irony is that we have not even begun to have frameworks for listening, trusting or following, because the solution is always offered not co created. Only then can flourishing become more than a theme. Only then can education begin to repair what it has helped to reproduce. Only then can we ask, with honesty, not just what we learned from the Anthropocene, but what kind of humans we are willing to become first and shape later.

Parenting: The Difficult Art of Letting Go

The other day, a parent described himself to me as a “Train Schedule Dad”, a term I was not familiar with. This is someone who manages family trips and daily life with the precision of a railway conductor. This can be added to the different descriptions of parenting in the 21st century that we have become familiar with over time: the snowplow (also called a lawnmower) parent, who endeavors to remove all obstacles from the child’s pathway; the helicopter parent, hovering above their child, checking every move and surveilling their every movement; and the tiger parent, fiercely driven to ensure their child achieves peak academic and extracurricular success.

As such, a strong paradigm of the 21st century is the overinvolved parent who wishes, perhaps understandably, to pave the path for their child, predicting every step, cushioning every blow, and intervening at the drop of a hat. However, how sustainable is this?

In 2019, Eli Lebowitz at the Yale Child Study Center developed the SPACE program, which focused on stopping “family accommodation”—the habit where parents constantly check on or rearrange schedules to soothe an anxious child. By teaching parents how to step back from this over-monitoring cycle, the study showed a dramatic drop in both the children’s anxiety levels and the parents’ own daily stress. It proved that giving children the space to navigate discomfort is often the best way to heal the whole family.

The point is that this study was not only about the child’s anxiety and also about the parent’s anxiety and how it could be reduced. In fact, when parents let go a bit, their anxiety levels go down and so do those of their children. It turns out that overinvolved parenting creates a huge amount of stress for both parties.

As we enter a particularly complex stage of history, with many “known unknowns” ahead and a pressing need to build up resilience and autonomy in young people, parents have to learn the painful but necessary lesson of letting go. This means allowing their children to fend for themselves, to find their own personalities, and to progress without constant intervention from the adults—who should be supporting them from the sidelines, while understanding the necessity of stepping back.

This will become increasingly vital as we enter a world where the ability to stand on one’s own feet and think for oneself will be critical to human flourishing. Letting go is not easy, but it is healthy, necessary, and par for the course.

Sharing stories, expertise, and experiences from international educators around the world. In the spirit of amplifying diverse voices. TIE's blog space is not subject to editorial oversight. TIE bloggers have a long history in various aspects of international education and share their thoughts and insights based on personal experiences.